Stochastic physical phenomena and economic activity
Abstract
The purpose of the present doctoral thesis is the investigation of the solar and geomagnetic impacts on the total economy, for the period 1987-2014. The analysis focuses on the economic, financial and oil activities. More precisely, using the autoregressive distributed lag model, the impact of geomagnetic activity on the US telecommunications sector and the impact of solar and geomagnetic activity on the French telecommunications sector, are investigated, respectively. Additionally, applying the seemingly unrelated regressions, the simultaneous impact of solar and geomagnetic phenomena on the US telecommunication and financial sectors is estimated. Next, a novel approach is proposed, in which, using node theory and approximating the general equilibrium equation as a global vector autoregressive process, the direct and indirect spillovers of the solar activity on the various sectors of the US economy are estimated. Moreover, implementing the autoregressive integrated moving average mode ...
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